@PhDThesis{Bezerra:2016:CoFaSo,
author = "Bezerra, Francisco Gilney Silva",
title = "Contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de fatores socioecon{\^o}micos,
biof{\'{\i}}sicos e da agropecu{\'a}ria {\`a}
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o da cobertura vegetal como “proxy” da
desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o no Semi{\'a}rido do Nordeste do
Brasil",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2016",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2016-05-25",
keywords = "desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o, estat{\'{\i}}stica multivariada,
{\'{\i}}ndice de vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o, modelagem de uso e
cobertura da terra, pecu{\'a}ria, semi{\'a}rido,
desertification, multivariate statistics, vegetation index, land
use and cover model, livestock, semiarid region.",
abstract = "A desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\'e} um problema de escala global
que aflige, principalmente e diretamente, o desenvolvimento das
regi{\~o}es secas do planeta. No semi{\'a}rido do Nordeste
brasileiro, a explora{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensiva e abusiva dos
recursos naturais, principalmente pela agropecu{\'a}ria, ao longo
dos tempos, associada a caracter{\'{\i}}sticas ambientais e
clim{\'a}ticas particulares e aspectos socioecon{\^o}micos
limitantes, atuam como facilitadores do desencadeamento do
processo de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o/desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o.
Neste sentido, acredita-se que o modelo de explora{\c{c}}{\~a}o
dos recursos naturais por parte dos sistemas de
produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o, em especial da pecu{\'a}ria, desenvolvido
no Semi{\'a}rido do Nordeste do Brasil - SANEB pode ser
considerado um fator preponderante para o aumento da
suscetibilidade ao processo de
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o/desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Assim, o
objetivo desse trabalho {\'e} analisar a din{\^a}mica da
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o vegetal nessa regi{\~a}o como
\${''}\$proxy\${''}\$ de {\'a}reas com potencial para
desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o, visando entender a rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o
dessa din{\^a}mica com diferentes fatores ambientais e
socioecon{\^o}micos, por meio da combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados
de sensoriamento (composi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de imagens
multitemporais MODIS/TERRA do {\'{\i}}ndice de
vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o EVI2 (\emph{Enhanced Vegetation Index} 2),
m{\'e}todos quantitativos, em especial modelos de regress{\~a}o
multivariada e modelos din{\^a}micos espacialmente
expl{\'{\i}}citos. O estudo identificou as {\'a}reas com
cobertura vegetal degradada como \${''}\$proxy\${''}\$ de
{\'a}reas potencialmente em processo de
degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o/desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o (APD),
classificadas em tr{\^e}s categorias, segundo a din{\^a}mica da
mudan{\c{c}}a da cobertura: a) {\'a}reas que em 2000 foram
classificados como \${''}\${\'A}reas N{\~a}o Potencialmente em
Processo de Degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o/Desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o
(NAPD)\${''}\$ e passaram a ser consideradas APDs em 2010 (NAPD
- APD); {\'a}reas que permaneceram como APDs em ambos os anos
analisados (APD-APD); e c) {\'a}reas que migraram da categoria
APD em 2000 para NAPD em 2010 (APD-NAPD). No per{\'{\i}}odo
entre 2000 e 2010 houve um aumento de 23\% (26.222,7
km\$^{2}\$) de APDs. Este aumento ocorreu principalmente nos
Estados do Cear{\'a}, Piau{\'{\i}} e Bahia. A an{\'a}lise da
mudan{\c{c}}a e de seus determinantes indicou que, no
per{\'{\i}}odo analisado, os fatores \emph{instrumentos de
planejamento e pol{\'{\i}}ticas p{\'u}blicas, estrutura
agr{\'a}ria, ambientais e clim{\'a}ticos, tecnologia e
utiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o da terra} s{\~a}o os mais importantes para
a determina{\c{c}}{\~a}o das mudan{\c{c}}as das APDs, sendo que
aproximadamente 25\% da vari{\^a}ncia total s{\~a}o explicados
pelas vari{\'a}veis percentual da {\'a}rea dos estabelecimentos
agropecu{\'a}rios com 100 ha a mais, dist{\^a}ncia
m{\'{\i}}nima aos n{\'u}cleos de desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
efetivo total do rebanho caprino e ovino. Assim, os resultados
confirmam a hip{\'o}tese de que o modelo de
explora{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos recursos naturais tradicionalmente
desenvolvido no semi{\'a}rido do Nordeste do Brasil, em especial
a pecu{\'a}ria, pode ser considerado um fator decisivo para o
aumento da suscetibilidade aos processos de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o
e desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o na regi{\~a}o. A modelagem
estat{\'{\i}}stica e espacialmente explicita corroborou para o
estabelecimento e entendimento dos fatores determinantes da
mudan{\c{c}}a no SANEB, permitindo testar as rela{\c{c}}{\~o}es
entre as vari{\'a}veis e as {\'a}reas em processo de
desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o. ABSTRACT: Desertification is a global
problem that afflicts primarily and directly the development of
dry regions on the planet. In the Semiarid region of Northeast
Brazil - SANEB, intensive and abusive exploitation of natural
resources mainly by agriculture and livestock, over time
associated with particular environmental and climatic
characteristics and limiting socioeconomic aspects operates as
triggering facilitators of the process of degradation /
desertification. In this sense, it is believed that the model of
exploitation of natural resources by the production systems,
especially the livestock developed in the SANEB can be considered
a preponderant factor to the increase of the susceptibility to
degradation/desertification processes. The objective of this study
is to analyze the dynamics of vegetation degradation in the region
as a \${''}\$proxy\${''}\$ of areas with potential for
desertification, in order to understand the relationship of this
dynamic with different environmental and socioeconomic factors, by
combining remote sensing data (compositions of multi-temporal
MODIS / TERRA EVI2 images (Enhanced vegetation index 2),
quantitative methods, especially multivariate regression models
and spatially explicit dynamic models. This study identifies the
areas with degraded vegetation cover as \${''}\$proxy\${''}\$
of areas potentially undergoing degradation / desertification
(APD), classified into three categories, according to the dynamics
of the coverage change: a) areas classified in 2000 as
\${''}\$Areas not potentially in the Process of Degradation /
Desertification (NAPD)\${''}\$ and considered APDs in 2010 (NAPD
- APD); b) areas that remained APDs in both years (APD-APD); and
c) areas who did migrate from APD category in 2000 to NAPD in 2010
(APD-NAPD). In the decade analyzed there was an increase of 23\%
(26,222.7 km\$^{2}\$) of APDs. This increase occurred mainly in
the states of Cear{\'a}, Piau{\'{\i}} and Bahia. The analysis
of the change and its determinants indicated that in the period
analyzed, the \emph{planning instruments and public policy,
agrarian structure, environmental and climatic, technology and
land use} factors are the most important, with approximately 25\%
of the total variance explained by the variable \emph{percentage
of area of farms with 100 hectares and more, minimum distance to
total desertification nuclei and effective total of the goat and
sheep flock.} Thus, the results supports the hypothesis that the
model of exploitation of natural resources traditionally developed
in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil, particularly
livestock, can be considered a decisive factor for the increased
susceptibility to degradation and desertification in the region.
Statistical and spatially explicit modeling did confirm the
establishment and understanding of the determinants of change in
SANEB, allowing the test of relationships between variables and
areas in desertification process.",
committee = "Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica (presidente) and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra
de (orientadora) and Alval{\'a}, Regina C{\'e}lia dos Santos
(orientadora) and Arcoverde, Gustavo Felipe Balu{\'e} and Lima,
Patr{\'{\i}}cia Ver{\^o}nica Pinheiro Sales and Sampaio,
Everardo Valadares de S{\'a} Barreto",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Contribution of socioeconomic, biophysics and agriculture factors
to the degradation of vegetation cover as {"}proxy{"} of the
desertification in the Semiarid region of Northeast Brazil",
language = "pt",
pages = "205",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3LLTPHL",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3LLTPHL",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}